By Robert B. Roque Jr.
While there is a sense of relief that the people of Iran may be driving toward freedom and change from the rigid Islamic regime, more so with the US-Israeli strikes that killed its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, peace in the Middle East is far from at hand.
First, there is no clear path for a stable succession of leadership – one that, at the very least, turns its back on theocratic ideology, which has dictated the nation’s leadership since 1979.
Second, its internal struggle is not without a firestorm of conflicts still raging with its Arab neighbors — the very ones it bombed in retaliation, apart from civilian targets in Tel Aviv. And it’s not like the attack drones only targeted US military facilities in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Iran bombed the heart of the cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.
As of this writing, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have not allowed any ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most vital energy chokepoint connecting Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and the UAE with the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.
A shutdown here is not abstract geopolitics, but a move whose ripple effect would be a global supply shock. Roughly 20% of the world’s crude flows through that narrow corridor, and 80% of that heads for Asia – a third, to China.
If one can recall, just at the start of the year — if it’s any precursor to the developments of today — President Donald Trump had the temerity to invite China and Russia to purchase oil from the U.S. after US forces captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.
That was a move to assert control over Venezuelan crude exports, effectively offering access to Asia, Russia, and China to buy oil now under Trump management. This strategic pivot reinforces Washington’s leverage in global energy markets even as supply lines tighten under Middle East instability.
For the Philippines, these may all read like distant foreign policy on the surface, especially if you listen solely to statements of President Marcos and his Department of National Defense (DND), which took to the news on Sunday the assurance that the Middle East conflict has “no direct threat” to the country.
Well, for one, the death of Filipina caregiver, Mary Anne Velazquez Rivera, who was hit by shrapnel as she raced to help her ward get into a bomb shelter in Israel, shows “no direct threat” is only a comforting phrase if our OFWs are out of the equation. We have hundreds of thousands of OFWs scattered across the Gulf.
Truth is, geography may protect our territory — 7,000 to 8,000 kilometers away from the bombs falling — but it does not shield our people from the consequences. Even without a single missile landing on Philippine soil, insurance premiums rise, freight rates spike, and markets respond in real time. The distance between Manila and the Gulf is long, but the distance between a blocked oil route and a Filipino commuter’s wallet is much shorter.
So, my read into this war saga is that militarily, our government may tell us there is no direct threat. But strategically, economically, and painfully — we are already in it.
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