By Oleksandr Lysak, Charge d’Affaires a.i., Embassy of Ukraine in the Republic of the Philippines
On February 24, 2022, the world watched in disbelief as Russia unleashed the largest military invasion in Europe since World War II. It was not a regional skirmish or a geopolitical misunderstanding; it was a brutal, unprovoked war of conquest. Three years later, Ukraine stands, battered but unbowed, fighting for its survival and the very principles of sovereignty, democracy, and international law.
But as this war drags on, what is truly at stake? It is not just Ukraine’s future, but the world’s. What happens to Ukraine will determine whether global politics is governed by rules or by force. And, perhaps more tangibly, it will decide who controls some of the world’s most valuable resources — resources that power economies, fuel industries, and, if taken by force, fund future aggression.
The world beneath Ukraine’s soil
While the fight for Ukraine is first and foremost a fight for its people and independence, there is another battle unfolding beneath its surface. Ukraine is home to some of the most valuable mineral reserves in Europe — vast deposits of lithium, titanium, uranium, and rare earth elements. These resources are essential for modern industries, from electric vehicles to aerospace, from nuclear energy to advanced weaponry.
Russia understands this well. Its war machine is not just fueled by imperial nostalgia but by a cold, calculated desire to seize control of these critical assets. A Russian victory would hand Moscow a treasure trove of minerals, allowing it to tighten its economic stranglehold on Europe and expand its technological and military capabilities. For Western nations, allowing Ukraine to fall is not just a moral failure — it would be an economic and strategic catastrophe.
If Ukraine retains its sovereignty, it has the potential to become a major player in the global resource market. If Russia succeeds, it gains near-monopolistic control over materials vital to the 21st-century economy. The stakes could not be higher.
At the same time, Ukraine is ready to mine its natural resources together with partners. It is a guarantee that Russia will not seize these resources and use them together with its allies.
Three years in: The tipping point
Ukraine’s fight is no longer just about holding the line — it’s about what comes next. After three years, the battlefield has changed. The war has reached a new phase, where neither side has achieved total victory, but Ukraine has shown that it will not surrender. With its recent operations pushing into Russian territory, Ukraine has proven that it is not just surviving, but actively countering the invader.
At the same time, Ukraine’s resilience depends on continued Western support. It is here that global politics threatens to take a dangerous turn. The world has seen this before: When an aggressor senses weakness, it does not negotiate — it escalates.
The Trump question
U.S. President Donald Trump has once again raised the issue of the war in Ukraine, expressing his stance on potential ways to end it. However, any initiatives that do not explicitly reference the UN Charter and fail to guarantee the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity are unacceptable. They create only the illusion of dialogue while Russia continues its criminal actions.
Ukraine welcomes any proposals aimed at achieving a just peace, but they must adhere to two fundamental principles: Nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine, and they must be based on the UN Charter, ensuring respect for Ukraine’s sovereignty and territorial integrity within its internationally recognized borders.
Putin is desperately seeking negotiations with Trump and the United States. However, any agreements made without Ukraine’s direct involvement will not bring real results. History has shown that attempts to decide Ukraine’s fate behind its back have only emboldened Russian aggression.
Ukraine will never accept deals made without its participation. The only path to lasting peace is through negotiations where Ukraine is actively involved, and where outcomes are based on international law and principles of justice.
The cost of compromise
Some argue that a negotiated settlement, even if it means Ukraine losing territory, is the only way to end the war. But compromise with an aggressor who has repeatedly violated agreements only invites further aggression. The moment the world signals that force can achieve results, other authoritarian leaders will take note.
The Baltic states, and even NATO’s eastern members could become the next targets of expansionist ambitions. And if Russia is allowed to absorb Ukraine’s mineral wealth, it will use it to finance its next move.
A war that must be won
Ukraine does not ask for charity. It asks for the tools to finish what it has started — to repel an invader, secure its future, and rebuild a nation that has already lost so much. The West must recognize that this is not just Ukraine’s fight. It is a battle for the kind of world we want to live in — a world where borders are respected, where power is checked, and where no nation is forced to kneel before a larger, more brutal neighbor.
Three years into this war, Ukraine has not fallen. It has defied the odds, reclaimed territory, and exposed the weaknesses of an enemy that once seemed unstoppable. But this war is far from over. Now, more than ever, Ukraine needs the world to stand firm. Not with vague promises or empty rhetoric, but with the unwavering commitment that victory — and justice — are the only acceptable outcomes.
The choice is clear: Either we help Ukraine win, or we prepare for a world where wars of aggression become the norm, not the exception.
Which future do we want?
