By Hafid Abbas, Visiting Professor at Asia Center, Harvard University, 2006
In today’s increasingly fragile geopolitical climate, tensions between Donald Trump and Ali Khamenei have escalated into a dangerous confrontation with global consequences. Military threats, energy disruptions, and ideological rigidity have created a volatile standoff that risks plunging the world into simultaneous crises—war, energy shortages, and mass hunger.
Amid this uncertainty, Indonesia, under the leadership of Prabowo Subianto, emerges as a decisive actor, guided by its long-standing “free and active” foreign policy doctrine. Rather than aligning with any major power bloc, Indonesia positions itself as a mediator—yet one with significant geoeconomic leverage capable of reshaping global outcomes.
First, Indonesia’s possible response to escalating tensions centers on the growing military threats and energy shockwaves. The confrontation between the United States and Iran has reached alarming levels. Trump’s warnings of overwhelming military force—threatening to dismantle Iran’s infrastructure—reflect a high-risk strategy that could destabilize the entire Middle East. On the other side, Khamenei has maintained a firm stance, signaling Iran’s readiness to resist external pressure at any cost, including confrontation with both the U.S. and Israel. At the center of this geopolitical crisis lies the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint responsible for roughly 20 percent of global oil flows. Iran’s potential closure of this route would trigger a massive global energy crisis, disrupting supply chains and sending prices soaring. The longer such disruption persists, the deeper the economic shockwaves felt across nations.
Second, Indonesia’s strategic influence lies not only in diplomacy, but in its command of global food supply chains. While much of the world remains preoccupied with energy security, Indonesia possesses a quieter yet more immediate form of leverage: food security. As the world’s largest exporter of crude palm oil (CPO), the country under Prabowo Subianto sits at the heart of a commodity that underpins everyday life across continents. With roughly 32 million tons exported annually, palm oil is embedded in a vast array of essential goods—from basic food staples to cosmetics and pharmaceuticals—making it indispensable to both developed and developing economies.
In this context, even the hypothetical suspension of CPO exports would carry profound global consequences. Supply chains would tighten almost instantly, prices would surge, and food insecurity could escalate, particularly in import-dependent nations. Such a scenario would not merely disrupt markets; it would expose the fragility of an interconnected world where access to food is deeply tied to geopolitical stability.
This reality underscores a deeper point: Indonesia’s role is not about wielding food as a weapon, but about signaling responsibility in an interdependent global system. In an era where both energy and food can become instruments of pressure, Indonesia’s position serves as a reminder that sustained peace is not optional—it is the very foundation upon which global stability depends.
Third, Indonesia’s actions reflect a doctrine in motion: its “free and active” foreign policy. This principle, first articulated during the Bandung Conference, emphasizes independence in decision-making while actively contributing to global peace. Prabowo’s approach embodies this doctrine in a contemporary context. Rather than choosing sides, Indonesia seeks to influence both parties toward de-escalation. However, this neutrality is not passive—it is supported by the credible capacity to impose global consequences if peace efforts fail.
Fourth, Indonesia advances mediation through pressure—preventing war by preventing hunger. In an unprecedented strategy, the potential suspension of palm oil exports serves as both a warning and a diplomatic instrument. By highlighting the risk of global hunger, Prabowo reframes the stakes of the conflict. War is no longer just about territory or ideology—it becomes a direct threat to the survival of billions. This approach transforms Indonesia into a mediator with meaningful leverage. The message is clear: continued escalation by Trump and Khamenei will not only destabilize energy markets but also risk collapsing global food systems.
Fifth, Indonesia promotes a vision for peace based on a two-state solution. At the United Nations General Assembly, 23rd September 2025, Prabowo has articulated a balanced and pragmatic path forward. Indonesia supports the immediate recognition of Palestine as an independent state, while also acknowledging Israel’s right to exist as a sovereign nation. This “win-win” solution aligns with Indonesia’s long-standing commitment to justice and coexistence, aiming to break the cycle of hostility and lay the foundation for lasting peace in the Middle East.
In conclusion, the current global crisis represents more than a geopolitical rivalry—it is a test of humanity’s ability to avoid self-destruction. The military threats posed by Trump and the defiance of Khamenei risk triggering a chain reaction of energy disruption and prolonged conflict. Yet, under Prabowo’s leadership, Indonesia introduces a powerful counterbalance. By leveraging its strategic role in the global food supply, Indonesia is not merely reacting to events—it is actively shaping them.
The warning is stark but necessary: if conflict continues, the world will face not only an energy crisis but also a catastrophic food crisis. Hunger, not just war, could define the next phase of global instability. In this high-stakes moment, Indonesia’s “free and active” foreign policy offers a path forward—one that prioritizes dialogue, balance, and shared survival over domination. The choice now rests with global leaders: pursue peace through cooperation, or risk a future defined by both war and hunger.
In the end, the path forward demands wisdom over force and dialogue over domination. As the ancient Roman philosopher, Marcus Tullius Cicero profoundly observed, “Pax est tranquilla libertas”—true peace is not just the absence of war, but a condition where people can live freely, safely, and without fear. This timeless insight reminds leaders such as Prabowo Subianto, Donald Trump, and Ali Khamenei that true strength lies not in coercion or retaliation, but in the courage to secure a just and lasting peace. Only through such commitment can humanity avoid the twin catastrophes of war and hunger and move toward a future grounded in dignity, stability, and shared survival.