Goods export growth in Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) is projected to slow to around 1.1 percent in 2026, as temporary drivers –frontloaded trade and high-tech goods demand– fade and policy uncertainty persists, according to the latest APEC Regional Trends Analysis.
APEC Policy Support Unit (PSU) director Carlos Kuriyama, analyst Rhea Crisologo Hernando and researcher Glacer Niño Vasquez said much of trade expansion this year stems from precautionary activity as firms accelerated shipment and built up inventories in anticipation of possible new trade restrictions.
“While economies continue to promote trade facilitation and deepen regional economic integration, rising trade-restrictive measures and trade remedies point to a more sensitive, cautious and fragmented global trade environment,” they said in a news alert.
Kuriyama, Hernando and Vasquez said trade has remained a bright spot in APEC’s 2025 performance, with merchandise exports and imports rising by 6.5 percent and 6.1 percent in value, respectively. Trade volumes of exports and imports also grew by 8.8 percent and 8.5 percent.
“The expansion was driven by frontloaded shipments, robust high-tech demand and agile adjustment by businesses, particularly seeking new markets and diversifying supply sources,” they added.
Released by the APEC Policy Support Unit, the report said merchandise trade strengthens on frontloaded shipments, supply chain diversification, and rising demand for metals and components from high-tech industries.
Kuriyama, Hernando and Vasquez said the surge in demand for metals and semiconductors underscores APEC’s central role in global industrial and technology supply chains.
They said strong safe-haven buying and rising demand from artificial intelligence-related production, renewable energy sectors and electric vehicles lifted metal prices. Semiconductor billings across the Asia-Pacific have also reached record highs on advances in logic and memory chip manufacturing.
“These developments present both opportunity and exposure. Strong demand from high-tech industries is supporting near-term growth, but the region remains vulnerable to supply bottlenecks, trade policy uncertainty, price swings and intensifying global competition,” they added.
The report said growth in the APEC region is projected to reach 3.1 percent in 2025, slightly higher than earlier forecast of 3 percent, supported by resilient trade activity and robust demand for high-tech goods.
With uncertainty still high, Kuriyama, Hernando and Vasquez said implementing smart fiscal policy, harnessing technologies and bolstering regional cooperation will be critical to restoring confidence and revitalizing growth in an increasingly complex global environment in 2026.
Kuriyama said adaptive regional cooperation is essential as APEC plays a vital role by providing a platform for open dialogue and shared solutions that promote predictable and transparent frameworks to foster trade and investment.
“Consistent dialogue and shared goals can help mitigate trade policy uncertainty and reinforce long-term stability,” Kuriyama, Hernando and Vasquez said.