By Robert B. Roque, Jr.
The “Big One” — the dreaded movement of the West Valley Fault — is no longer a doomsday prophecy. It’s science, and it’s only a matter of when. Yet, despite countless studies and earthquake drills, what exactly is the government’s plan?
Phivolcs Director Teresito Bacolcol says the fault last moved in 1658 and typically shifts every 400 to 600 years. If we follow that cycle, 2058 marks the lower boundary — meaning the probability of a major quake, a magnitude 7.2 or higher, grows stronger as we inch closer to that year. “Ripe” is the word he used. Not a prediction, but a warning grounded in science.
So what are we doing with that knowledge — other than duck, cover, and hold?
We have research, simulations, maps marking high-risk zones and safer grounds — but then what? Awareness alone doesn’t save lives. When the Big One hits, water pipelines could burst across Metro Manila. No water in the taps. Repairs will take days, maybe weeks. And isn’t it true that while a person can live weeks without food, he can’t survive more than a few days without water?
We’ve seen the image of people in Cebu sitting on the streets with plastic bags over their heads after the recent 6.9-magnitude quake. That was a scary image — a look into what an unready government looks like. If that happens in Metro Manila, where do survivors go? Who brings the tents, the toilets, the fire engines, the medical crews? What happens when roads split open, bridges fall, and communications are cut off — no internet, no phones, no power?
Let’s be blunt: people will fend for themselves. Stores could be ransacked, order could collapse. How long before rescue arrives — if rescuers can even reach you?
Earthquakes can’t be prevented, but unpreparedness can be condemned. So let’s dare the government to answer: Where is your plan for the Big One? Show the public where the tents will be, how you’ll secure water, food, shelter, medicine, and communication lines.
The West Valley Fault’s 400-year cycle is no mystery. If this is the mark, the government should already be many years wiser. Nothing — and no one — should be left to chance.
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