Two Duterte senatorial candidates and nine from the administration-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas remain strong contenders in the top 12, according to the latest Social Weather Stations (SWS) senatorial preference survey commissioned by the Stratbase Group.
According to Stratbase, the survey was conducted from March 15 to 20, 2025, several days after the arrest of former President Rodrigo Duterte, through face-to-face interviews with 1,800 registered voters nationwide. It has a margin of error of ±2.31%.
Results show that ACT-CIS Representative Erwin Tulfo and Senator Bong Go are tied for the top spot, each receiving 42% support. Between February and March, Go gained 4 percentage points, while Tulfo’s support declined by 3 points.
A tight race continues among those in 3rd to 13th place, with differences in support ranging only from 2 to 3 percentage points— well within the margin of error.
Broadcaster Ben Tulfo and former Senator Tito Sotto are tied for 3rd and 4th place with 34% support.
Senator Lito Lapid dropped two places to 5th with 33%, a 3-point decrease from his 36% support in February.
Senator Bong Revilla remains in 6th place with 32%, while Senator Pia Cayetano and former Senator Ping Lacson share the 7th and 8th spots with 31%.
Senator Bato Dela Rosa holds 9th place with 30%, down 2 points from February.
TV host Willie Revillame remains in 10th place, despite a slight dip in support from 30% to 28%.
Rounding out the top 12 are Makati Mayor Abby Binay, former Senator Manny Pacquiao, and Las Piñas Representative Camille Villar, who are tied for the 11th to 13th spots with 27% each.
Just outside the top 12 are former Senator Kiko Pangilinan in 14th place with 24%, and former Senator Bam Aquino in 15th with 21%.
One of the biggest declines came from Senator Imee Marcos, who again failed to break into the top 12. Support for her candidacy continues to fall. She now stands in 16th place with 19%, down 5 points from February.
Stratbase Group President Dindo Manhit attributed the strong and consistent performance of Alyansa candidates to the coalition built by President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. and the political machinery backing them.
“Right now, it’s safe to say that the Marcos administration and the coalition they have built, which includes five major political parties, can win big in the May 2025 election,” Manhit said.
“Beyond the incumbency advantage, the president has fostered unity among various political forces. While the unity between Marcos and Duterte may have dissolved, we’re now seeing strong alignment among traditional political parties and their allies,” he added.
Manhit also pointed out that the popularity and public image of each candidate, combined with the President’s endorsement, help keep Alyansa bets within the winning circle.
He also expects the support toward many candidates to still increase, especially at the start of the local campaign period by the end of the week.
“These candidates already have a degree of popularity and existing support. When you add the President’s endorsement and the administration’s and its allies’ political machinery, it creates a powerful force heading into May 2025,” he said.
Manhit further emphasized that the visibility of candidates across traditional and digital media continues to influence their standings.
“For 20 years, Stratbase has used data and science to analyze political shifts, especially during election season. What we’re seeing now reflects the impact of media exposure, political advertising, and social media engagement by various candidates,” Manhit said.
