On March 11, the former president was arrested and brought to a detention cell at the International Criminal Court in The Hague.
A lot has happened since—especially in the world of politics, where news moves faster than you can say “disinformation.” And boy, has the disinformation been flowing—many of it coming straight from China.
Now that we’ve had some time to let the dust settle, let’s take a step back and assess the situation.
The first Filipino and first Asian former head of state to face charges at the ICC is behind bars thousands of miles away from his beloved Davao.
This makes one thing crystal clear: Duterte’s once-unshakable grip on power has taken a serious hit.
But the real test will come in May when Duterte’s name will be on the ballot in Davao. Despite the fact that he’s turning 80 on March 28, he made a last-ditch effort to hold on to political control by running in place of his son, Baste, who was supposed to take over.
What about his own senatorial slate?
Before the arrest, surveys showed that only incumbents like Bato dela Rosa and Bong Go had a real shot at winning a seat in the Senate.
But with public sympathy being manufactured by Duterte’s loyalists in a flurry of online and offline noise, can they really turn that sympathy into actual votes?
Filipinos, being naturally compassionate, are being hit with a wave of messages about how “poor” the old man is, how he was “kidnapped by white foreigners,” and how he’s just a victim of forces beyond his control.
But here’s the thing: This “weak” messaging runs directly counter to the “strongman” image that the Dutertes have carefully cultivated over the years.
And as history shows, the Filipino people love their macho heroes—but what happens when the hero shows cracks in his armor? What happens when the tough guy starts looking… well, weak?
Then there’s the issue of the Duterte political machine. Without Duterte at the helm, can Bato dela Rosa, who’s currently in hiding from the ICC, really pull off a re-election campaign? Being in hiding also sends a clear message: it’s a sign of weakness—a lack of the “balls” that have been part and parcel of the Duterte brand.
Let’s not forget about Bong Go, the man whose name has been linked to every bit of Duterte intrigue—rumors swirling about his betrayal in exchange for political immunity, not to mention his ongoing feud with Vice President Sara and the Zimmermans.
With all the infighting within the Duterte camp, can Go really weather the storm and come out on top?
With Duterte behind bars and his influence dwindling, can they still make their political machine work in their favor, or will their grip on power slip even further?
