By Robert B. Roque, Jr.
Since Friday, when the quarantine status in Metro Manila was downgraded to a more relaxed Alert Level 2, crowds have been gathering at malls and other places of convergence. The volume of traffic around commercial centers tells a lot about how much Filipinos are in a rush to pre-pandemic normalcy.
With a high vaccination rate among residents in the National Capital Region and a continued decline in daily COVID-19 cases, optimism for a truly merry and customary Christmas season is in the air. But before we celebrate the lifting of curfew hours, the extended mall hours, and the leniency to take children outdoors, let’s all remember not to throw caution to the wind.
As we feel and enjoy this newfound freedom of movement, note that the Department of Health (DOH) has two projections in the coming weeks. One is a positive outlook that sees daily active cases of COVID-19 dipping to as low as about 2,100 by December 15, while the other projects as many 52,300 active cases by mid-December.
The disparity is mind-boggling, but both presuppose whether or not minimum public health standards are observed as strictly as they should be and if vaccination rates continue to improve. With advanced analytics used in projecting these scenarios, what is clear is that an uptrend of active cases is very much a possibility because of the increased mobility now enjoyed by the public.
The unfortunate prediction is that mobility would increase from 82 percent to 91 percent. A corresponding decrease in compliance to health safety protocols is estimated at 26 percent with Alert Level 2 in place. That’s a dreadful combination that could setback the gains we’ve had in bringing the COVID-19 numbers down.
So, if we genuinely want a blessed Christmas with a healthy and happy family welcoming the New Year, we should not let our guards down, especially in public. On the part of the government, local government units (LGUs) should work hard to increase vaccination among the vulnerable sectors, especially the elderly, and new strategies should be implemented to address vaccine hesitancy.
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