They made the statement during a forum on Japan and the Philippines’ strategic cooperation on Friday, organized by the Stratbase Institute, in partnership with the Embassy of Japan in the Philippines.

China studies expert and University of Tokyo Professor Dr. Shin Kawashima said Beijing will continue to pursue aggressive tactics, including the spread of disinformation and false narratives, in the West Philippine Sea, Senkaku Islands, and Taiwan.

“China will not stop their operations. Maybe they will slow down temporarily but from a long-term view, China will not stop, especially given their strong strategy to go beyond the First Island Chain,” he said.

In 2024, the China Coast Guard escalated tensions in the West Philippine Sea by aiming a military-grade laser and firing water canon at Philippine Coast Guard vessels, repeatedly ramming it, brandishing weapons, and explicitly threatening the safety of Filipinos at sea.

In Japan, approximately 1,300 Chinese government ships swarmed the waters surrounding the Senkaku Islands, marking a record high for the third consecutive year.Additionally, in the same year, over 3,000 Chinese military aircraft breached Taiwan’s Air Defense Identification Zone, setting another new record.

Kawashima also said that the severity of China’s actions in the West Philippine Sea will depend on how the new United States government will respond to their operations.

“China will experiment with the Trump administration’s attitude whether it will be hard line or soft line. If the Trump administration adopts a soft attitude, China will enact more aggressive policies,” he explained.

The Japanese expert emphasized the need for stronger cooperation among like-minded countries to deter aggressive Chinese actions in the West Philippine Sea and Senkaku Islands.

“If like-minded countries will cooperate against China, if all of us could enhance the level [of cooperation] against China, the cost on China will be so much. That means China will feel larger costs if they continue to adopt its aggressive attitude towards us,” Kawashima added.

Stratbase President Professor Dindo Manhit supports the call on regional allies to intensify their collective efforts in addressing China’s increasing assertiveness.

He highlighted the strategic importance of the Reciprocal Access Agreement (RAA) between the Philippines and Japan, which was unanimously ratified by the Philippine Senate on December 16.

“The RAA sends a resounding message that the Philippines and Japan will stand resolute in the Indo-Pacific. It is crucial for the Philippines and like-minded partners, such as Japan, to deepen strategic cooperation to uphold peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific,” he explained.

“It is crucial for the Philippines and like-minded partners, such as Japan, to deepen strategic cooperation to uphold peace and stability in the Indo-Pacific. Fortunately, our leaders are more engaged than ever, actively participating in dialogue, open to new agreements, and committed to forging partnerships that strengthen collective efforts in addressing regional threats,” Manhit added.  

The RAA will strengthen the cooperation between the Armed Forces of the Philippines and Self-Defense Forces of Japan. It will allow the Self-Defense Forces of Japan to engage in advanced training, particularly in joint US-Philippine exercises such as Balikatan, Kamandag, and Sama-Sama.

Japanese Ambassador to the Philippines Enzo Kazuya said Japan is determined to unlock the full potential of its relationship with the Philippines.

 “Once the RAA comes into effect, our level of cooperation will enter a new phase. We will continue to fortify our security and defense cooperation with allies and like-minded partners such as the US and Australia, sending a powerful message of our unwavering commitment to regional peace and stability, anchored on the rule of law,” Kazuya said.

The landmark agreement will strengthen the cooperation between the Armed Forces of the Philippines and Self-Defense Forces of Japan. It will facilitate collaborative activities and improve interoperability of the two nations, contributing to the strengthening of the Indo-Pacific’s security architecture. This is a necessary and strategic move forward to further uphold maritime safety and ultimately safeguard stability in the region.

At a time when geopolitical tensions are intensifying, this strategic collaboration between the Philippines and Japan underscores the importance of partnerships that promote maritime security and safeguard national sovereignty. Both nations, as maritime states with firsthand experiences of external challenges to territorial integrity, recognize the value of strengthening defense ties to ensure a rules-based international order.

The RAA serves as a clear statement from the Philippines and Japan that our two nations will remain steadfast in the Indo-Pacific and will not be deterred by forces that seek to undermine the rules-based order.

The Stratbase Institute reiterates its full support of the RAA and believes that its ratification is a necessary step to protect regional stability amid emerging security challenges. As a cornerstone of a more resilient regional security architecture, this agreement signifies a collective commitment to uphold peace, stability, and the rule of law in an increasingly complex geopolitical landscape.