Don’t look now, but if you’re rooting for Sara Duterte to win in 2028, the numbers are starting to tell a less comfortable story. Take the latest Pulse Asia survey, for example: the Vice President is still ahead, but no longer a force you would instantly call a runaway winner.

The poll, conducted Feb. 27 to March 2, shows that in a straight VP Duterte-Mayor Leni Robredo matchup, respondents are at 51% to 43%. That’s an eight-point gap that looks sturdy until you remember where this race once stood. Earlier multi-candidate soundings had Leni Robredo languishing in single digits. Now, in a forced choice, she’s within striking distance.

Also, take note that this voter sampling was taken before the impeachment process against the VP came rolling full-steam ahead. Personally, I expect significant changes if the polling were done today. Or maybe not.

Analysts point out that the regional and class breakdowns remain a defining factor for these results. Duterte dominates Mindanao (93%) and the Visayas (67%), while Robredo commands Balance Luzon (67%) and edges the National Capital Region, 42% to 41%. More telling: Robredo leads decisively among Class ABC voters (63%), while Duterte’s strength is anchored in Classes D (53%) and E (74%). That’s not just a demographic split — it’s a map of where persuasion, resources, and narrative-setting power tend to flow.

Then comes the Raffy Tulfo variable — one that my good friend in the Senate does not seriously pay attention to. Although I think, even just to amuse him and his friends, he should. And here’s why.

Against Duterte, Tulfo forces a statistical deadlock at 46% apiece. And crucially, his strength in Balance Luzon (72% to Duterte’s 19%) and competitiveness in Class D suggest he siphons from Duterte’s coalition more than Robredo’s. In a three-way race, Duterte still leads at 43%, but Robredo (27%) and Tulfo (19%) compress the field enough to erase any illusion of inevitability.

Two years is an eternity in Philippine politics. But one thing this survey clearly magnifies in my mind is that invincibility does not belong to Sara Duterte when we talk about 2028. Perhaps that should simmer and settle more in the minds of senators who would be in a unique position to sit in judgment should the articles of impeachment reach their chamber.

Because if this data tells us anything, it is that the presidency is far from a sealed deal. And if it is not a sealed deal, then there is no rational basis — none at all — for fear to creep into an institution that is constitutionally bound to act with independence.

The Senate, when convened as an impeachment court, is not a political extension of whoever might win next. It is a constitutional body tasked to weigh evidence, test accountability, and render judgment without favor or fear. That duty does not bend to survey numbers. It certainly should not cower before them.

To hesitate, to hedge, or worse, to preemptively shield a sitting Vice President on the assumption that she is the “next president anyway” is not prudence — it is abdication.

If the articles arrive, the Senate must do its job. Fully. Fairly. Fearlessly.

*         *         *

SHORT BURSTS. For comments or reactions, email firingline@ymail.com or tweet @Side_View via X app (formerly Twitter). Read current and past issues of this column at https://www.thephilbiznews.com

During courtesy calls also with Camarines Sur Governor Luis Raymund “LRay” Villafuerte and First District Representative Tsuyoshi Horibata, Ambassador Endo introduced the Japanese Government’s Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Projects (GGP) scheme, reaffirming Japan’s commitment to advancing Philippines-Japan cooperation in Camarines Sur by contributing to the improvement of people’s lives in the province.

In Naga City, the Ambassador exchanged views with Mayor Robredo on existing initiatives and challenges faced by the city. He also highlighted the significance of this year, which marks the 70th anniversary of Philippines-Japan Friendship, and discussed ways to encourage the people of Naga and the broader Bicol Region to cultivate further interest in Japan and promote stronger people-to-people ties.

The visit also included the turnover ceremony for “The Project for Procurement of an Ambulance for the Municipality of Sipocot, Camarines Sur,” attended by Municipal Mayor Tomas Bocago and local officials.

Sipocot’s two operational ambulances responded to 295 emergency cases and 223 non-emergency cases last year. However, only two units have been serving the entire municipality, creating significant challenges in ensuring timely response — particularly when patients must be transported to hospitals located 44 to 120 kilometers away from the provincial hospital.

The existing ambulances also lack adequate medical equipment, often leaving them unable to provide essential care during patient transport. Given these conditions, the municipality urgently needed an additional unit.

To address the situation, the Embassy of Japan provided a grant amount of US$55,027 (approximately ₱3 million) to the Municipal Government of Sipocot. The grant covers the procurement of a new ambulance that will serve the town’s 68,000 residents.

In his message, Ambassador Endo expressed his hopes that the new ambulance will not only enhance the capacity of the Municipal Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Office (MDRRMO) in delivering its daily services, but will also strengthen its ability to respond to emergencies during and after calamities, ultimately saving lives and supporting the well-being of residents.

Japan remains the Philippines’ top Official Development Assistance donor, with 2025 marking the 70th anniversary of its ODA program. The Japanese government launched the Grant Assistance for Grassroots Human Security Projects in the Philippines in 1989 to reduce poverty and empower communities through grassroots initiatives.

To date, 567 grassroots projects have been implemented under the GGP program nationwide. Japan has expressed confidence that these initiatives will further strengthen the longstanding friendship between Japan and the Philippines and elevate the strategic partnership between the two countries.

Through engagements with local leaders and targeted grassroots support such as the Sipocot ambulance project, Japan signaled its intention to sustain meaningful, community-level cooperation in Bicol as part of its broader development partnership with the Philippines.