In a press briefing following the 32nd ASEAN Economic Ministers’ Retreat in Taguig City, DTI Undersecretary Allan B. Gepty said the AEM agreed to hasten the completion of the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement (APSA), which allows ASEAN Member States to provide petroleum supplies to neighbors facing shortages of at least 10 percent of their national domestic requirement.

“Well, in the statement, the economic ministers agreed and called for the advancement of the finalization of the ASEAN Petroleum Security Agreement, together, of course, with the achievement of our deliverables on ASEAN Power Grid,” Gepty said, referring to the joint statement issued by the AEM during the Retreat.

“So, basically the current situation will now call ASEAN Member States to fast-track that agreement,” Gepty said, noting that the regional bloc may act on it “at the soonest possible time.”

The original APSA was first signed in Manila in 1986, establishing a framework for Member States to share petroleum supplies.

In 2009, a modernized version was signed in Cha-am, Thailand that introduces the “10% critical shortage” rule and a focus on voluntary, commercial-based assistance.

In October 2025, the agreement was renewed at the 43rd ASEAN Ministers on Energy Meeting in Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia, keeping the safety net active through 2026 and expanding cooperation to include natural gas, considering Southeast Asia’s growing reliance on liquefied natural gas (LNG).

The AEM warned that ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are causing volatility in global oil and LNG markets, posing risks to economic stability across Southeast Asia.

Disruptions in key supply routes, such as the Strait of Hormuz, and rising international energy costs could affect trade, production, and transportation throughout the region.

To address these challenges, the AEM stressed the need to prioritize energy diversification, including renewable and alternative sources such as biofuels, and promote more efficient energy use.

The AEM emphasized stronger regional coordination, including contingency reserves and collaboration with ASEAN Dialogue Partners, to ensure an uninterrupted energy supply.

The AEM highlighted the importance of advancing other regional initiatives, such as the ASEAN Power Grid (APG) Enhanced Memorandum of Understanding and the Trans-ASEAN Gas Pipeline (TAGP), to ensure stable, secure, sustainable, and resilient energy connectivity and supply.

ASEAN is highly vulnerable to Middle East tensions, as most of its crude oil and a significant share of its LNG are imported from Gulf nations.

While there is a sense of relief that the people of Iran may be driving toward freedom and change from the rigid Islamic regime, more so with the US-Israeli strikes that killed its supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, peace in the Middle East is far from at hand.

First, there is no clear path for a stable succession of leadership – one that, at the very least, turns its back on theocratic ideology, which has dictated the nation’s leadership since 1979.

Second, its internal struggle is not without a firestorm of conflicts still raging with its Arab neighbors — the very ones it bombed in retaliation, apart from civilian targets in Tel Aviv. And it’s not like the attack drones only targeted US military facilities in Kuwait, Qatar, and Bahrain. Iran bombed the heart of the cities of Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

As of this writing, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have not allowed any ship to pass through the Strait of Hormuz — the world’s most vital energy chokepoint connecting Gulf producers such as Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Iran, and the UAE with the Gulf of Oman and Arabian Sea.

A shutdown here is not abstract geopolitics, but a move whose ripple effect would be a global supply shock. Roughly 20% of the world’s crude flows through that narrow corridor, and 80% of that heads for Asia – a third, to China.

If one can recall, just at the start of the year — if it’s any precursor to the developments of today — President Donald Trump had the temerity to invite China and Russia to purchase oil from the U.S. after US forces captured Venezuela’s Nicolás Maduro.

That was a move to assert control over Venezuelan crude exports, effectively offering access to Asia, Russia, and China to buy oil now under Trump management. This strategic pivot reinforces Washington’s leverage in global energy markets even as supply lines tighten under Middle East instability.

For the Philippines, these may all read like distant foreign policy on the surface, especially if you listen solely to statements of President Marcos and his Department of National Defense (DND), which took to the news on Sunday the assurance that the Middle East conflict has “no direct threat” to the country.

Well, for one, the death of Filipina caregiver, Mary Anne Velazquez Rivera, who was hit by shrapnel as she raced to help her ward get into a bomb shelter in Israel, shows “no direct threat” is only a comforting phrase if our OFWs are out of the equation. We have hundreds of thousands of OFWs scattered across the Gulf.

Truth is, geography may protect our territory — 7,000 to 8,000 kilometers away from the bombs falling — but it does not shield our people from the consequences. Even without a single missile landing on Philippine soil, insurance premiums rise, freight rates spike, and markets respond in real time. The distance between Manila and the Gulf is long, but the distance between a blocked oil route and a Filipino commuter’s wallet is much shorter.

So, my read into this war saga is that militarily, our government may tell us there is no direct threat. But strategically, economically, and painfully — we are already in it.

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