The agreement, reached following an April 6 meeting convened by Trade Secretary Ma. Cristina Roque, covers a wide range of staple goods with suggested retail prices (SRPs), including canned sardines, processed milk, bread, coffee, locally manufactured instant noodles, bottled water, laundry soap, candles, salt, canned meat, condiments, and toilet soap.

Roque said the continued industry cooperation underscores a shared commitment to price stability and consumer protection despite volatility in fuel and supply chains.

“We thank our manufacturers for their continued cooperation with the government. This constant dialogue allows us to respond proactively, keep prices stable, and ensure that Filipino consumers remain informed and protected,” she said.

She also assured the public that supply remains sufficient. “There is no need for panic buying, as supply remains adequate. The DTI continues to monitor markets daily to ensure that basic goods are available and prices remain affordable,” Roque added.

As part of its broader UPLIFT framework, the DTI is intensifying nationwide monitoring, adopting a whole-of-government approach to cushion Filipino families from inflationary pressures. While no enforcement actions have been necessary so far, the agency emphasized that compliance mechanisms are in place. Businesses found selling above SRP levels may face Letters of Inquiry or Notices of Violation, with strict penalties for practices such as hoarding and profiteering.

Participating companies include Nestlé Philippines, Inc., Monde Nissin Corporation, Universal Robina Corporation, Century Pacific Food, Inc., Procter & Gamble Philippines, San Miguel Foods, Inc., and Alaska Milk Corporation, among others.

To promote transparency and guide consumers, the DTI said the official SRP bulletin is widely available through in-store postings in supermarkets and groceries nationwide, as well as online via its official website and social media channels.

With sustained coordination between government and industry, the DTI said it remains focused on maintaining reasonable prices, ensuring adequate supply, and protecting both consumers and enterprises under the administration’s economic agenda.

Data released Tuesday showed that the country’s seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index (CPI) grew by 1.6 percent month-on-month in March 2026, a significant jump from the 0.4 percent increase recorded in February.

The PSA attributed the acceleration to stronger price gains across key household spending items, particularly food and energy-related costs.

“Faster month-on-month increments were noted for… food and non-alcoholic beverages… [and] housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels,” the PSA said.

Food prices, a major component of household spending, rose by 1.2 percent, up from 0.7 percent in February. Meanwhile, housing and utilities, which include electricity and fuel, posted a 1.0 percent increase, a sharp rise from just 0.2 percent the previous month.

The uptick reflects mounting pressure on basic goods and services, as global uncertainties, particularly the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, continue to disrupt energy markets and supply chains.

The Philippines, which relies heavily on imported fuel, is especially vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices. Higher fuel costs typically cascade into increased transport, production, and food prices, amplifying inflation at the household level.

The price surge was felt nationwide.

In the National Capital Region (NCR), inflation accelerated to 1.6 percent in March from just 0.1 percent in February, while areas outside Metro Manila recorded an even faster increase of 1.7 percent from 0.4 percent.

Outside NCR, the impact of rising energy costs was particularly evident. The index for housing and utilities rebounded to a 0.9 percent increase in March from a 0.1 percent decline in February, signaling a turnaround in power and fuel-related expenses.

Food prices in these areas also climbed faster at 1.3 percent, up from 0.5 percent.

The PSA noted that seasonal demand also contributed to the uptick, saying that “seasonal factors, such as the degree of demand for selected goods and services during the season, pushed up the indices” across most commodity groups, including food, housing, and restaurants.

Still, the broad-based increase across essential items underscores the growing strain on consumers, especially as external risks — from geopolitical tensions to volatile energy prices — continue to feed into domestic inflation.

With both food and power costs rising simultaneously, economists warn that price pressures could persist in the coming months if global conditions remain unstable.

Inevitably, and by all indications, fuel prices will rise again. If it has not already, since today is Tuesday.

Let’s take liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), for example, which is more of a fuel of necessity for most Filipino households. As of this writing (Easter Sunday) and depending on where you are and what brand of cooking gas you order for your kitchen, the real pain is already here.

Where I am from in Quezon City, the 11-kilogram LPG tank I regularly get is now brushing the P1,800 range, from the P1,160 price just a little over a month ago. And this is for a commodity government insists is not in short supply.

If that claim is true, the price is punishing for a fuel not short in supply. When LPG climbs, the stomach surely grumbles: ulam at the karinderya is either more expensive or spread out on the plate like half an order; rice servings are shaved; and the pandesal shrinks quietly without much complaint from customers.

We Pinoys are headed for dieting, abstinence, or fasting well beyond the Lenten Season. A less-fed Juan and Juana, though, may be music to the ears of the congresswoman who announced several weeks ago that our nation should be alarmed, as over 40+ percent of our adult population is obese or overweight. Well, perhaps here’s an opportunity to force a national diet.

Sadly, we can’t kid ourselves. This is certainly not a solution for better health, but about inflation tightening its grip.

Diesel is projected to spike by as much as ₱20 per liter. Gasoline and kerosene follow. Public transport, logistics, food chains — all will adjust, and never seem downward as the real pressures of wars in the Middle East and even between Russia and Ukraine bear down on the throats of nations like ours that are dependent on oil imports.

Which is precisely why the fake “energy lockdown” advisory that spread like wildfire over Holy Week is not just irresponsible — it is dangerous.

Malacañang, through Usec. Claire Castro has repeatedly shut it down: there is no energy lockdown on April 20. President Marcos Jr. himself has assured supply stability through June 30. And yet, rumor merchants persist — complete with forged logos and doomsday checklists urging people to hoard.

This is not harmless chatter. It is economic sabotage.

False claims distort behavior. They trigger panic-buying, strain supply chains, and artificially drive up prices. They erode trust in institutions at the very moment clarity is needed. In a fragile energy environment, misinformation doesn’t just mislead — it manipulates markets.

Firing Line is full-on behind Acting Communications Secretary Dave Gomez when he said there must be zero tolerance for purveyors of fake news on energy issues. The law is clear and should be applied to them — because those who deliberately spread lies in a time of economic strain are enemies from within.

They are market saboteurs, preying on public anxiety, distorting prices, and pushing ordinary Filipinos closer to panic, scarcity, and unnecessary hardship.

At this time, Filipinos must learn to consume information the way they should consume fuel in a crisis — carefully, deliberately, and from reliable sources. Not every forwarded message deserves belief. Not every viral post deserves a share.

We are already dealing with enough real problems. We do not need invented ones.

*         *         *

SHORT BURSTS. For comments or reactions, email firingline@ymail.com or tweet @Side_View via X app (formerly Twitter). Read current and past issues of this column at https://www.thephilbiznews.com

The Feb. 27–March 2 poll, conducted by Pulse Asia and released Thursday, found that 41% of respondents want leaders to address “more affordable food prices in your area such as rice, meat, and fish.” This marks a 3-point increase from December 2025, with Balance Luzon (41% → 46%) and Mindanao (40% → 46%) showing the largest upticks. The shift was most pronounced among Class E respondents (+7 points, 33% → 40%).

Meanwhile, 26% cited the need to “lessen or eliminate corruption to provide better community services,” down 5 points from 31% in the previous survey—coinciding with the winding down of flood control scandal investigations.

Interest in job creation also rose, with 24% calling for “more jobs and livelihood opportunities,” up from 21% in December. The increase was most notable in Visayas, where support jumped 27% → 43%.

Victor Andres “Dindo” Manhit, Stratbase Institute president and CEO, said the results highlight growing concern over food security and inflation, as Filipinos now pay P94–P115 per liter of fuel following recent double-digit price hikes.

“Geopolitical tensions are directly impacting Filipino households,” Manhit said. “While corruption remains an important issue, ordinary citizens are more focused on immediate economic pressures, including food prices and income stability.”

The findings align with a separate Pulse Asia survey showing inflation (47%) and corruption (36%) as the top national concerns.

Manhit urged the government to stabilize food and fuel prices, crack down on profiteering, and expand state subsidies to shield vulnerable sectors from shocks.

“Addressing rising food prices must go hand in hand with creating jobs and ensuring that economic gains reach local communities,” he added.

Other concerns in the Stratbase survey include “providing accessible education and healthcare services” (10%, unchanged from December 2025).

The survey coincided with U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran, prompting Tehran to close the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-fifth of the world’s oil passes, pushing oil prices above $100 per barrel. The resulting fuel hikes in the Philippines have raised fears of inflation spilling over to essential goods.

The survey polled 1,200 respondents with a ±2.8% margin of error.

Philippine Exporters Confederation, Inc. (PHILEXPORT) President Sergio Ortiz-Luis Jr. said suspending or removing excise taxes on fuel products could reduce pump prices by roughly P6 to P10 per liter.

He said the government could also consider lowering VAT on fuel and electricity to provide additional relief.

“Lowering the value-added tax on fuel and electricity would help cushion the impact, even if the excise tax is removed. This is meant to prevent fuel prices from rising too much,” Ortiz-Luis said in Filipino during an interview on DZAR 1026 SMNI Radio.

Ortiz-Luis warned that a sharp increase in gasoline prices would likely fuel inflation and raise costs across multiple sectors.

“If gasoline prices increase significantly, it will drive inflation and make things more difficult for everyone. Logistics costs will rise, companies will face higher expenses, and workers will also be affected. Without subsidies, many people will struggle,” he said.

However, Ortiz-Luis noted that exporters previously did not support calls to reduce VAT, even before the latest Middle East tensions, because the benefits would likely favor heavy spenders and large corporations rather than lower-income households.

“Lowering VAT would not necessarily benefit the poor. The savings would mostly go to those who spend more—large companies and wealthier consumers,” he said.

The PHILEXPORT chief also warned that sustained increases in oil prices, driven by geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, could force some businesses to shut down and result in job losses.

He said companies are already grappling with rising operating expenses as fuel prices increase, noting that fuel imports are paid in US dollars.

“Even our advantage of having many overseas Filipino workers sending remittances home could be affected if some of them are impacted by the situation and send less money. At the same time, the peso’s purchasing power continues to decline because we are paying more dollars for fuel imports,” Ortiz-Luis said.

He expressed hope that the conflict in the Middle East would not drag on, stressing the importance of conserving fuel and exploring alternative energy sources.

“If we can find alternative ways to generate power and electricity, then that would be good,” he added.

This is the central message of The Economic Impact of the Agri-Food Sector in the Philippines, a new report by Oxford Economics, the ASEAN Food and Beverage Alliance, and Food Industry Asia, launched in Makati on February 5.

A pillar of the economy

The numbers underscore why the stakes are high. The agri-food sector contributes about US$164.6 billion, or roughly one-third of national GDP, and supports 18.8 million jobs, accounting for 38% of total employment. Beyond output and jobs, it anchors food security and inclusive growth, particularly in rural areas.

But the report warns that the operating environment is tightening. Climate risks, trade frictions, and higher tariffs—particularly from the United States—are raising costs and uncertainty for producers and exporters.

Trade risks and inflation pressures

James Lambert, director at Oxford Economics, said Philippine agri-businesses are especially exposed as the US accounts for about 20% of total agri-food exports. An additional 19% tariff could cut US agri-food imports from the Philippines by around 25%, dealing a significant blow to exporters.

Food price inflation is another looming risk. As a net food-importing economy and one of ASEAN’s most climate-vulnerable countries, the Philippines faces compounded pressures from global commodity price volatility and extreme weather disruptions.

In a worst-case global scenario, escalating tariffs could leave global GDP 2.3% below baseline over five years, further amplifying external shocks felt by domestic food systems.

Turning turbulence into advantage

Despite the headwinds, the report argues that the Philippines can “turn turbulence into an advantage” through a proactive, coordinated strategy.

At the core is trade diversification. The ability to scale production and compete with established players is key for local agri-businesses to benefit from short-term trade-diversion dynamics, Lambert said.

To address these risks, the report calls for a focused reform and investment push, starting with upgrading export infrastructure and strengthening food safety and logistics systems such as cold-chain storage, inter-island shipping, and integrated logistics hubs to cut losses and improve reliability for perishable goods. It also urges expanded access to finance, certification, and standards compliance to help MSMEs and small producers enter higher-value export markets, alongside trade facilitation reforms to reduce the cost and complexity of exporting through more efficient customs procedures and predictable food regulations. The agenda includes accelerating investments in resilience-building infrastructure—port upgrades, farm-to-market roads, transport connectivity, renewable energy expansion, and improved grid efficiency—to ensure stable and affordable power for agri-processors. Restoring investor confidence through business-friendly reforms is highlighted as critical to signaling long-term policy commitment, while deeper regional integration is seen as a growth lever, with RCEP participation alone projected to raise Philippine exports by 5.1% and GDP by 3.4% by 2035. The report adds that transparent and consistent trade and investment policies are essential to sustaining investor trust and integrating Philippine producers into global value chains.

A moment for strategic action

The message from the report is clear: risks to the agri-food sector are real and rising, but so is the opportunity.

With continued emphasis on trade openness, infrastructure investment, and institutional capacity, the Philippine agri-food sector can maintain its resilience and reinforce its role as a catalyst for inclusive economic growth.

For policymakers and industry leaders, the challenge now is execution—moving from awareness to a coherent, long-term strategic plan that secures food security, protects livelihoods, and positions Philippine agriculture to compete in an increasingly volatile global market.

The state think tank projects economic growth of 5% in 2025 and 5.3% in 2026, following a 5.7% expansion in 2024, pointing to continued recovery despite global and domestic headwinds.

Speaking at a January 15 webinar, lead author John Paolo Rivera said inflation has eased and economic stability has returned, but reforms are needed to make growth more durable.

“We are growing and inflation is under control,” Rivera said. “The challenge is making growth more robust and secure.”

Growth eased slightly to 5.4% in the first half of 2025 amid softer investment activity, climate-related disruptions, and global trade uncertainty.

The services sector remains the main growth driver, led by trade, finance, tourism, construction-related services, and the BPO industry, supporting jobs and household consumption. However, agriculture continues to lag due to climate shocks and structural weaknesses.

While consumption continues to support near-term growth, the study stressed the need to accelerate public and private investment, particularly in infrastructure, to raise long-term productivity.

Service exports remain strong, though easing, while merchandise exports face risks from global slowdown and trade policy uncertainty. The labor market remains stable, but improving job quality and productivity remains a key challenge.

Looking ahead, the PIDS report, co-authored by Ramona Maria Miral and Mark Gerald Ruiz, said easing inflation and resilient domestic demand should support moderate growth through 2026, though stronger governance and investment execution will be critical to achieving inclusive and sustained expansion.

“This is evidence that our interventions are working. We will continue to do our part at the Department of Finance [DOF] to ensure that our policies keep both food and non-food commodities affordable for Filipino families,” Finance Secretary Frederick D. Go said in a news release Friday.

This is in line with President Ferdinand R. Marcos Jr.’s directive to protect Filipinos’ purchasing power and strengthen food security.

The lower inflation was driven by a drop in food prices, by 0.3% year-on-year (YoY) from a 0.2% increase in October 2025 and 3.5% increase in the same month last year.

Rice prices continue to improve, averaging at ₱44.19 per kilogram (kg), significantly better than the ₱52.59/kg average in the same month last year.

Low-income households benefitted from easing food prices as inflation for the bottom 30% income households fell to -0.2% in November—its sixth consecutive month of contraction. This was driven by lower food prices, utilities, and transport.

The national government continues to expand and expedite efforts to ensure an affordable and steady supply of food in the market ahead of the holiday season, including other basic services.

President Marcos Jr. signed Executive Order No. 105 last month to extend the 15% tariff rate on imported rice until the end of the year to better respond to changes in world market prices.

To ensure stable food prices and fair income for farmers, EO 105 upgrades the current tariff system by providing automatic tariff adjustments based on movements in international rice prices beginning next year.

This will be implemented by the new Inter-Agency Group on Rice Tariff Adjustment, of which the DOF is a member.

To provide relief to Filipinos affected by the recent typhoons and strengthen disaster readiness, the President declared a one-year state of national calamity. This authorizes the government to impose price ceilings on basic necessities and prime commodities, provide no-interest loans to affected sectors, and use calamity funds for rescue, relief, recovery, and rehabilitation.

To ensure uninterrupted power in typhoon-affected areas, the Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) ordered Meralco and all electric cooperatives to suspend power disconnections for bills due from November 4 to December 31, 2025.

They also extended a two-month, no-interest installment plan for customers consuming up to 100 kilowatt-hour (kWh) to provide temporary financial relief.

There are moments when government officials reveal exactly how out of touch they are — and this past week, Trade Secretary Cristina Roque gave the Filipino public a shining example as an advanced Christmas gift. Her now-infamous remark that ₱500 is enough for a Noche Buena meal didn’t just miss the mark, but insulted a nation that already knows too well how far ₱500 doesn’t go.

Most Filipinos didn’t know whether to take her seriously or laugh in jest. So they did both. TikTok, Facebook — name any platform from Batanes to Jolo — exploded with a flood of content mocking the idea. Some netizens offered the most bizarre, nutrition-deprived, gutter-tier combinations imaginable, proving that yes, you can technically buy food worth ₱500… if your idea of Noche Buena includes instant pancit canton and Sky Flakes.

On the other side were the few kitchen-savvy Filipinos who tried to assemble a dignified meal for 2–4 people. They succeeded, barely — but with one huge caveat: their ₱500 computation silently assumed the family already had oil, salt, sugar, pepper, and gas or electricity for cooking. In short, the public had to make Roque’s numbers work by excluding half the realities of actual living.

And here’s the real kicker: after receiving a tidal wave of criticism, she could have stopped. She could have read the room, stepped back, and admitted that the remark didn’t land well in the Christmassy spirit that had just set in.

But hey, Secretary Roque just had to double down at a time the nation is angered by left-and-right corruption in government infrastructure projects that put the life of the presidency under a sharpened ax.

So, yeah… she faces the press again, “clarifying” that ₱500 — no more, no less — can truly satisfy the noche buena cravings of papa, mama, and two children. As if repetition could turn fantasy into fact.

This is where the insult sharpens. Because what Filipinos heard was not guidance — it was condescension. It was the familiar tune of officials who speak about the poor without ever living a day in their reality.

So here is a simple, fair challenge, Madam Secretary: On Christmas Eve, show us your family’s ₱500 Noche Buena table. Lay it out proudly. Feed your family of four with it. Then ask yourself, sincerely and without cameras, whether you would still have the temerity to recommend the same to millions of Filipino households.

Until then, spare us the Yuletide suggestions on thrifty feasting.

Filipinos already stretch every peso until it screams. What they don’t need is a government asking them to celebrate Christmas on a budget it wouldn’t dare endure itself.

These insights were shared during the 2025 Market Movers series, an exclusive economic briefing for clients that carried the theme, “Trump, Tariffs, and the Terminal Rate: The New Global Order.” The sessions provided perspectives to help investors and businesses navigate shifting global and domestic conditions. To strengthen the discussions, the event featured research and analysis from CreditSights and BMI, both under the global credit rater Fitch.

Mapa said that 2026 growth will likely be driven by the return of public construction and the delayed impact of monetary easing, which should begin to lift economic activity more visibly next year.

Below are the five key calls he identified for 2026:

The temporary fiscal pause this year may slightly weigh on short-term performance, but GDP growth is expected to gradually recover as capital formation and investments regain traction. The resumption of government spending and infrastructure programs is seen to support this turnaround.

Inflation, which fell below the BSP’s target this year, is projected to rise and approach the upper end of the 2–4% target range by mid-2026 due to base effects and possible increases in global commodity prices, including those influenced by U.S.-imposed tariffs. Despite this expected uptick, average full-year inflation is still seen to remain within the target.

The BSP is expected to remain dovish after its anticipated December rate cut, even as inflation trends close to 4% by mid-year. The central bank has already cut a total of 175 basis points from its peak policy rate of 6.50%, bringing it to 4.75% following its October 9 meeting. With price stability still manageable, the BSP is likely to maintain its focus on supporting softening growth momentum.

The Philippine yield curve is expected to steepen as monetary easing pulls short-term yields lower, while long-term yields rise due to government borrowing in the 10-year maturity range and gradually increasing inflation expectations. This may influence fixed-income strategies as investors position for shifting rate dynamics.

The Peso may continue to experience pressure even as the U.S. Federal Reserve maintains its rate-cutting cycle, which could weaken the dollar. Domestic factors, including the country’s current account deficit projected for 2026 and 2027, are expected to keep the local currency under strain.

For access to more economic reports and investment solutions, clients may enroll in Metrobank Wealth Manager through the Metrobank Online site or visit any branch or the official website.